The Taiwan count down has begun!

[D2D]

The Chinese know it, too!

[D2D]

It’s 17 Months before the end of Biden’s first term as President. The weakness he and his cronies have displayed could spell the end of Taiwan and the beginning of the worst political disaster since the moronic pullout from Afghanistan. According to a House Armed Services Committee member and other experts. China has been preparing to take Taiwan, the US has been dithering, sending most of its munitions to Ukraine. Are they waiting for American munitions to magically show up in the stockpiles?

“We’re three-and-a-half years behind in providing the Taiwanese military with the weapon systems that they’ve already paid for.  Military goods already paid in full simply haven’t been provided to them…We have problems in our defense industrial base providing the numbers of equipment that we need and that all of our allies have already paid for.” Rep. Keith Self (R-Texas) Washington Watch
“I have talked to at least one senior member in Congress that says he believes that Communist China may make this effort during the Biden administration. … That is something we need to at least plan for, be prepared for.” Lt Gen Jerry Boykin, Ret

17 months or before

We’ve written about the weakness of the Biden administration since 2021. It’s been a circus of mistakes and foolish moves that have ceded US strength. The giddy Treasury Secretary, the giggling Vice President, the confused President, a foolish Secretary of State, and a woke Secretary of Defense have all led to a massive drain of power and status. China has been watching. They increased their military spending “723%,” from $41.2B in 2000 to $298B in 2021, although they do not report all of it, and where they stand today is not fully known. They also have added at least 60 nuclear missiles.


All while 18 of the US’ 49 attack submarines sit in drydock and unavailable. That’s 40% of our submarine fleet. Not to mention our military being concerned about diversity, equity, and inclusion instead of warfighting. 17 months or before to get your act together, America.

https://ipatriot.com/china-could-attack-taiwan-within-next-17-months-house-armed-services-committee-member-warns/

[D2D]

China has planned and prepared for this for decades!

[D2D]

There is a reason the CCP armed the Spratlys!





They have created the naval version of a gauntlet that any relief force heading to Taiwan will have to travel!

[wvit1001]

nobody's attacking Tiawan.

But putin has said that any and all ship approaching the ports of Ukraine are assumed to be carrying military supplies and will be treated as hostile.

[D2D]

I will remind you of this claim when Taiwan is invaded by China!

The resulting massive loss of life will be on all Democrat hands including your own!

[wvit1001]

ok, you do that zippydoodly. 

[D2D]

I will!

[D2D]

Key Takeaways

[LIST=1]

• Foxconn founder Terry Gou published an article in the Washington Post urging high-level dialogue between the ROC and PRC. The article likely will further CCP information operations that aim to exculpate the party from blame for exacerbating cross-strait tensions. This assessment is independent of Gou’s intentions for publishing the article.
  
• The Taiwanese media outlet United Daily News (UDN) falsely alleged the United States pressured Taiwan to develop biological weapons. The UDN allegation likely will further CCP information operations that aim to decrease the confidence of the Taiwanese population in the United States as a reliable partner.
  
• The CCP is likely to fuse human and technological surveillance methods in implementing its anti-espionage law.
• The CCP criticized Japan’s release of over one million tons of water from the destroyed Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, possibly to buttress the party’s image as a responsible regional power.
• The CCP messaged its alignment with Russia’s view of NATO as an instigator in other regions’ affairs to signal its opposition to greater NATO involvement in East Asia.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-july-20-2023

[D2D]

Amid growing threats by China to attack Taiwan, the commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said on Tuesday he is confident U.S. forces could prevent a military takeover of the island state.

Adm. John Aquilino, the top officer in charge of deterring a conflict with China over Taiwan, also told a security conference that he does not currently have all the forces he needs if war broke out in the Taiwan Strait.

“That said, with what we have today, I’m confident that they would fail,” Adm. Aquilino said of a Chinese invasion.

The four-star admiral was asked at an appearance at the Aspen Security Forum about China’s timetable for seeking to take over Taiwan, which Beijing claims is part of its sovereign territory.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has already indicated that the military should be prepared for military action by 2027, the admiral noted.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/jul/19/inside-ring-admiral-says-chinese-invasion-taiwan-w/

Desperate bluster from a man who knows his forces are hollow!

[D2D]

With the fast approach of the Davidson Window, which sets the date for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan as soon as 2027, much attention has been focused on Beijing’s aircraft carriers and how they could come into play. In the following analysis, Ben Ho of IISS looks at two prevailing theories about how effective the carriers may be in an invasion, before raising a new way of looking at the issue.

In the past decade, there has been much talk over China’s staggering pace of defense modernization. Of note would be Beijing’s aircraft-carrier program, and this aspect of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has spawned a bustling cottage industry. There have been additions to this conversation in recent months. For instance, in a May Reuters article, various experts maintained that the Chinese carrier force is still embryonic and poses “little threat yet” despite 10 years of development and counting. The story came on the back of the early-spring deployment of the PLAN’s second flattop, the Shandong, into the western Pacific and approaching Guam.

The Reuters piece added that there are questions over the value of Chinese carriers during a Taiwan contingency, at least in the short term (read within the next few years or within the timeframe of the “Davidson window.”), and such doubts are largely due to the limited capabilities of the Liaoning (China’s first flattop) and Shandong. (While China’s third carrier, the Fujian, is much more capable owing to its catapult-assisted takeoff and barrier-arrested recovery, or CATOBAR, flight-deck configuration, the ship will probably be operational only in the late 2020s given the “first-in-class” issues that will invariably surface). In response to the Reuters article, military analyst Rick Fisher warned of underestimating the Chinese carrier threat because of the protective cover of Beijing’s shore-based anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) edifice. The arguments both sides put forth have merit, but need more nuance. What is more, that PLAN carrier airpower could adequately menace Taiwan’s east coast — an argument which seems to be gaining traction — needs to be addressed.

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/07/reassessing-the-near-term-chinese-carrier-threat-in-a-taiwan-scenario/

Land-based systems are the primary threat to Taiwan!

The only factor in Taiwan's favor is China needs to take the semiconductor factories intact and undamaged!

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/V7En1hELQPc" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/V7En1hELQPc</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7En1hELQPc