Slaughter imminent?

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/DQVYJBTEebg" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/DQVYJBTEebg</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQVYJBTEebg

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces blunted one of the largest Russian mechanized assaults in Ukraine since October 2023 in western Donetsk Oblast on July 24.
  
• The Russian military command's willingness to expend a large number of armored vehicles on limited tactical objectives reflects poor longer-term operational foresight, and constraints on Russian equipment in the medium- to long-term will make such failed mechanized assaults costlier with time.
  
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) indicated that Lieutenant General Sergey Kobylash has become Deputy Commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS).
  
• Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov attempted to frame Ukraine as unwilling to negotiate, while demonstrating the Kremlin's own unwillingness to engage in good faith negotiations by reinvigorating Russian information operations falsely portraying Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as an "illegitimate" leader of Ukraine.
  
• The Kremlin continues to strengthen its ties with the People's Republic of China (PRC) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states.
  
• The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) and National Police announced that they neutralized a group connected to the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) that had been preparing to commit arson against civilian objects in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe.
  
• Select Russian officials continue to call for measures targeting diaspora groups while the Russian government continues efforts to extend its control over migrants in Russia.
  
• Syrian President Bashar al Assad met with Russian President Vladmir Putin in Moscow on July 24.
  
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Robotyne, and Russian forces recently marginally advanced north of Kharkiv City and near Toretsk, Donetsk City, and Robotyne.
  
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on July 24 granting deferments from military conscription to employees of the Russian Prosecutor General's Office and Investigative Committee who have higher education and special ranks starting in September 2024.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-25-2024

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/JEn9V2DXNP0" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/JEn9V2DXNP0</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEn9V2DXNP0


Key Takeaways:

• The Russian military has recently expanded the Russian Central Grouping of Forces' area of responsibility (AOR) in Donetsk Oblast, suggesting that the Russian military command has deprioritized the grouping's previous task to act solely as an operational maneuver force in the Avdiivka direction. The Russian military command may instead be tasking the Central Grouping of Forces with overseeing the bulk of Russia's main offensive efforts in Donetsk Oblast.
  
• The expansion of the Central Grouping of Forces' AOR indicates that the Russian military command may assess that rapid tactical gains in the Avdiivka area are unlikely.
  
• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted an ATACMS strike against Saky Airbase in occupied Crimea on the night of July 25 to 26.
  
• The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) arrested former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Army General Dmitri Bulgakov on corruption charges on July 26 – the latest in a concerted Kremlin effort to remove senior Russian defense officials since April 2024.
  
• The European Union (EU) transferred the first tranche of proceeds from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.
  
• The Kremlin continues intensifying efforts to control Russians' internet activities and to create a culture of self-censorship within Russia.
  
• Russian security forces reportedly detained several unknown actors threatening to blow up an apartment building in the Republic of Dagestan on July 25.
  
• Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Svatove, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.
  
• The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) reported on July 22 that the Russian intelligence services appear to have further integrated Russian forces' cyber and conventional capabilities.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-26-2024

[D2D]

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against an oil refinery and Russian military airfields in Saratov, Ryazan, and Murmansk oblasts on the night of July 26 to 27.
  
• Russia continues to deepen bilateral relations with Iran and North Korea in exchange for the provision of lethal aid to the Russian military for use in Ukraine.
  
• Ukrainian forces recently regained positions near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced west and southwest of Donetsk City, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Vovchansk.
  
• The Russian government continues efforts to use the "Time of Heroes" program to integrate Russian veterans into society.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-27-2024

[WWV10MHZ]

Clearly, the Russians constantly target Civilian populations and homes and apartments and schools and hospitals. It is NOT by accident
    and NOT as collateral damage.

WHY THEN, are they NOT brought up before the Court of International Justice for War Crimes and violation of the Geneva Convention?

Meanwhile, Israel gets blamed for all kinds of things 24/7!!!! ...and, Hamas is never blamed for anything and is portrayed as a "victim"!!!

[D2D]

The Russians have always targeted civilians!

You would think they would have learned from their failure in Afghanistan, but they haven't!

They expend lives as if there is a never-ending supply!

They rule by terror!

They will fail and Putin will likely fall!

What replaces him is the problem!

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/G_M9Xo0sRP0" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/G_M9Xo0sRP0</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_M9Xo0sRP0

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/USPjYSgzZqQ" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/USPjYSgzZqQ</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USPjYSgzZqQ

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/U4C_9blQg2g" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/U4C_9blQg2g</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U4C_9blQg2g

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to use nuclear saber-rattling to target Western decision-making and promote Western self-deterrence.
  
• Russia used Navy Day celebrations to showcase Russia's relations with a number of non-Western states as part of efforts to create a supposed Russian-led group of states to rally against the West.
  
• Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against a Russian oil depot in Polevaya, Kursk Oblast on the night of July 27 to 28.
  
• A rebel coalition in Mali reportedly killed and wounded dozens of Russian servicemen and Wagner Group mercenaries as well as a prominent Wagner-affiliated milblogger on the Mali-Algeria border on July 27.
  
• Primorsky Krai Governor Oleg Kozhemyako recently announced the creation of an independent volunteer unit to police migrants as the Russian government continues efforts to expand its control over migrants in Russia.
  
• Russian forces recently advanced northwest of Avdiivka, west of Donetsk City, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions in the Siversk direction.
  
• Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets assessed that the Russian military may need to accumulate up to 320,000 additional personnel in Ukraine in order to achieve its reported plans to deploy 690,000 troops in Ukraine.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-28-2024

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/koBvygGyu3M" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/koBvygGyu3M</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=koBvygGyu3M

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces conducted five platoon- to battalion-sized mechanized assaults in western Donetsk Oblast on July 29 and 30. Such localized mechanized pushes are likely the manifestation of Russia's forecasted summer offensive—Russian forces likely lack the wider operational capacity to mount a separate renewed offensive operation in Donetsk Oblast or elsewhere on the front this summer.
  
• The Russian military command's willingness to accept costly armored vehicle losses without conducting a large-scale, multi-directional offensive operation or making operationally significant advances in western Donetsk Oblast will likely burden the Russian military in the long-term. The ongoing Russian offensive operations are also costly for Ukrainian defenders and are likely meant to degrade Ukrainian capabilities through attrition whether or not they gain much ground.
  
• North Korea may be expanding the volume and variety of weapons it is providing to Russia.
  
• The Kremlin is likely attempting to corral Russian information space actors onto social media sites that the Kremlin can more directly influence to directly control their rhetoric, prompting some backlash from Russian ultranationalist milbloggers and opposition journalists.
  
• Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil depot in Vozy, Kursk Oblast on the night of July 29 to 30.
  
• The Russian government continues to support educational programs on "information and hybrid warfare" aimed at training Russians to conduct and counter information operations, use open-source research methodology, and to effectively analyze and counter hybrid threats for the Kremlin.
  
• Russian officials and Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) representatives are advocating for the Kremlin to codify a state ideology premised on the idea that the sovereign Ukrainian state should not exist, into Russian federal law.
  
• Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar and southwest of Donetsk City.
  
• Authorities in St. Petersburg have joined other Russian regional authorities in increasing financial incentives for recruits to sign military service contracts.
  
• UK newspaper The Times published a story on July 29 detailing how Russian authorities are indoctrinating deported Ukrainian children through military-patriotic education programs.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-30-2024

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/RitEgna_vlw" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/RitEgna_vlw</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RitEgna_vlw

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/jaFlCniNFsk" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/jaFlCniNFsk</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jaFlCniNFsk

Key Takeaways:

• Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that Israel conducted an airstrike killing Hamas Political Bureau Chairperson Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran to derail attempts to establish peace in the Middle East.
  
• The Russian State Duma revised some aspects of a recent bill criminalizing Russian soldiers' use of personal devices on the battlefield following outcry in the Russian ultranationalist community.
  
• Russian officials may be taking steps to address domestic security issues following the March 2024 Crocus City Hall terrorist attack and June 2024 shootings in the Republic of Dagestan.
  
• Ukrainian forces struck a weapons and equipment warehouse in Kursk City on the night of July 30 to 31.
  
• Russian border guards withdrew from Armenia’s main international airport.
  
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Svatove, Chasiv Yar, Torestsk, and Donetsk City and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
  
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on July 31 increasing financial incentives for signing a Russian military service contract, likely to support ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-31-2024

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/OH5Ca00Frn0" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/OH5Ca00Frn0</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OH5Ca00Frn0


Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces continue to make slow, steady advances in the Pokrovsk direction (west of Avdiivka), largely enabled by Ukrainian manpower shortages and the terrain in the area immediately northwest of Avdiivka. Russian advances will likely slow further as Russian forces advance into a line of larger and more urban settlements.
  
• Russia's current rate of tactical advance towards Pokrovsk will likely not continue indefinitely, however, as Russian forces are approaching a line of larger and more urban settlements.
  
• Russia's Central Grouping of Forces appears to be more rapidly redeploying and committing forces between different sectors of its recently expanded area of responsibility (AOR) in Donetsk Oblast than has been the norm in most of the theater recently.
  
• The Central Grouping of Forces may have established a more flexible command and control (C2) structure and may be responding more quickly to potential Ukrainian tactical vulnerabilities than other Russian groupings of forces in Ukraine.
  
• A limited number of F-16 fighter jets have reportedly arrived in Ukraine, but it will likely be several months before Ukraine will be able to field the jets at scale.
  
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated that Ukraine will not compromise its sovereignty and territorial integrity in exchange for a diplomatic resolution to Russia's invasion.
  
• Russia, Belarus, the US, Germany, Poland, Slovenia, Turkey, and Norway conducted a high-profile prisoner exchange involving 26 prisoners from multiple countries on August 1.
  
• Russian forces recently advanced near Svatove, Chasiv Yar, and Donetsk City.
  
• Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii reported on August 1 that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) may have significantly overstated the number of contract soldiers it claims to have recruited between Fall 2022 and April 2024.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-1-2024